Approach
Event-driven, fundamentally underwritten.
Markets are good at pricing simple businesses and poor at pricing change. We focus on the moments of change: corporate events that create forced sellers, confusing structures or neglected securities, and on the catalysts that resolve them.
Where we look
The situations we specialise in
- Spin-offs and separations
- New entities that are mis-sized for their inherited shareholder base, with little coverage and indiscriminate early selling.
- Restructurings and post-reorg equity
- Businesses emerging from balance sheet repair whose new capital structure is not yet understood or owned by natural holders.
- Mergers and strategic actions
- Announced and anticipated transactions, asset sales, break-ups and strategic reviews where the outcome can be underwritten.
- Capital allocation shifts
- Buybacks, tender offers, dividend initiations and balance sheet changes that re-rate how a company is valued.
- Governance and management change
- New leadership, activist involvement or board change that resets strategy and incentives.
- Regulatory and legal outcomes
- Rulings, approvals and settlements with a defined date and a range of outcomes we can map.
Process
Four steps, applied every time
- 01
Identify
Screen for events, filings and structural dislocations, then filter for situations where we can build an informational or analytical edge.
- 02
Underwrite
Value the business across outcomes, map the catalyst path and its timing, and define what has to be true for the thesis to work.
- 03
Size
Sizing is set by downside, catalyst confidence and liquidity. A good idea with a weak catalyst stays small.
- 04
Monitor
Every position carries explicit milestones. When the catalyst plays out, or the thesis breaks, we act on it.
Principle
A cheap security without a catalyst can stay cheap for years. We want to know what will change, when, and why the market has not priced it.Read our research